Second Round Predictions

Before we get to my Stanley Cup Semifinals predictions, let's do a little revisiting with my first-round Stanley Cup Predictions:

Boston in five over Montreal (Boston swept 4-0)
Caps in six over Rangers (went seven)
Carolina in six over the Devils (also went seven)
Flyers in seven over Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh won the series)

Sharks in five over the Ducks (Ducks won and Sharks choked)
Red Wings in five over Columbus (Detroit rolled over the Jackets)
Canucks in five over the Blues (whooped up on them too)
Calgary in six over the Blackhawks (Chicago advances)

So, what does this prove? Not a whole heck of a lot. Many of the other alleged experts have similar won-loss records in this fickle prediction game. Last year I surprised myself at how well I did because usually I am about at the 50% level.

If you're Gary Bettman this morning, you're pretty happy. The matchup between the Ovies and The Genos (or Crosbies if you like) is the greatest matchup that they could have hoped for in the second round. Those faint cheers you hear are coming from Stamford, CT at the studio used for the great NHL on VERSUS studio show. What a perfect matchup to showcase the tedium and sheer lack of excitement from Bill Patrick and Company.

Actually, with Brian Engblom as part of the cast, you have no choice to be as bland as hot ham water. I don't think they need to panic on a "let's hire Dennis Miller to be on Monday Night Football"-kind of way, but they do need to liven it up. Even Keith Jones, who always seems like he want to be more fun, shrinks like a little man in cold water sitting next to he Human Cliché Machine.

Anyway, back to the predictions for Round Two...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Bruins (1) vs. Hurricanes (6)--A classic Whalers-Bruins series? Hardly. The Bruins have been waiting forever to find out who they'd be playing so expect some rust in the first game or two. Still, I see the Bruins going on to the conference finals. Bruins in six.

Capitals (2) vs. Penguins (4)--I guess the first thing to consider is that we are really going to find out if the makeup between Ovechkin and Malkin was real or just for photographic purposes.

The Capitals were disappointing while getting by the Rangers. Were they bored? Were they thinking too much of themselves? Or did the Rangers find something they could exploit to slow down the Washington offense?

Penguins in seven. I want this to go seven games. Pittsburgh has been playing a much better team game since Dan (Interim no more) Bylsma became the coach.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Red Wings (2) vs. Ducks (8)--This one tricks me like none if the others. The Ducks just knocked off the Sharks and now no one will ever want Joe Thornton to do anything after mid-April again. Seriously. If he buys lottery tickets, he may as well stop once April hits because he ain't winning anything.

The Red Wings are the Red Wings. The Ducks are surprising this spring after underachieving this past regular season. Is Osgood better than Jonas Hiller? I'm not so sure. Ozzie fought the puck all season and he's been facing questions all year.

The first impulse is to go with the experience...and the Wings have it...but then again, the Ducks won the Stanley Cup just a couple of years ago. Ah, hell: Detroit in seven.

Canucks (3) vs. Hawks (4)--Heart says Chicago and Patrick "Nobody dates my sisters" Kane. Head says Vancouver. Wildly inconsistent Khabibulin vs. Pretty darn good Roberto Luongo. That settles it: Canucks in six.

Prediction for San Jose: Pain

OK, here is another rumor-mongering post for everyone.

The Sharks are always the trendy pick in the playoffs. Once they got Joe Thornton, everybody figured they'd break through and make the finals even though Big Joe was not thought of as a solid playoff performer while wearing black and gold.

Now, after dropping the epic sixth game against the Dallas Stars, the Sharks are probably going to be voted Most Likely To Blow The Whole Thing Up This Off-Season.

The change is probably going to be at the top with coach Ron Wilson. Wilson, described as an abrasive sort, is allegedly one of those guys who rules the roost with negativity. As a "for instance" according to Fox Sports, one of his tactics he has been famous for is writing players' names on white boards and telling the rest of the team that these are the guys letting us all down and for playing head games with his captain, Patrick Marleau. More on him in a minute.

The general manager is of course, Doug Wilson, NHL legend and snappy dresser. I'm always struck by Wilson every year at the draft when you see rumpled people (likely, scouts) running around from table to table and chatting up everyone from officials with other teams to the kids that wear the sweaters of each team on the draft floor. And yet, every time it comes to San Jose, there is Doug Wilson, kinda tanned and sometimes chewing gum, but always looking like he is in total control. Years ago, during the "Mad Mike eating popcorn" era, I remember saying that as funny as Milbury was, he was totally hamming it up for the cameras and trying to be the center of attention. Doug Wilson seems to be the total opposite. He knew the cameras were on him but he didn't seem to care one bit. That's the guy I want running the draft table--the one in control.

So, anyway, the coach in San Jose is kind of a jerk to the players and allegedly also didn't talk to captain Marleau for long stretches over the past few years. Hard to figure that one out since you'd think the coach and captain should be on the same page--or at least reading the same book--to get the pulse of the players in the room and whatnot. The captain has to be the guy the players look to do communicate with the coach and he has to be able to represent the coaching staff while dealing with the players. In San Jose, not so much.

Now, Marleau has been questioned for his leadership in the local media and even on NBC this spring. After years of abusive head games, he is probably desperate to get out. Could he be moved for, let's say, the fifth overall pick in this June's draft? Is that a trade the Isles would be ready to make?

Marleau signed a two-year extension in August of last year. This means that he is working on a one-year deal. Unless the Sharks decide to can the coach who has been a PITA for the last few years, I bet he would be willing to leave in a heartbeat. He has something to prove.

This past season, in 78 games, Marleau totally underachieved to the tune of 19 goals and 48 points--not to mention the disarming -19 on a pretty decent defensive squad. Think he needs a change of scenery?

Marleau had scored 32 and 34 goals in the two prior seasons. He's scored over 80 points before. The guy is a player who can help a team like, oh, I don't know, the Islanders, who had a little bit of trouble scoring last season. Did you notice?

And here is the best part for a guy like Patrick Marleau: if he comes into the Islanders, he doesn't have to shoulder the load of being the captain! We already have a fine captain in Billy Guerin! And Marleau has already played with Guerin, albeit briefly, when Guerin was picked up by San Jose for the stretch run two seasons ago.

Now, yeah, I will totally admit that I am just spitballing here but that is all you can do when the Islanders have been out golfing for almost a month now. And still, if you think about it, the deal makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons. Both teams have a viable reason for at least entertaining this kind of move. San Jose needs to re-load and the Islanders need to put pucks in the net and continue to show the fans that they are serious about turning this whole thing around.

Do I want to move the #5 overall pick for a guy like Patrick Marleau? Well, I am not so sure. If he is the kind of guy who lacks fire like (and I am SO not branding him here) Alexei Yashin did, then probably not. Yashin never seemed comfortable in his role being The Guy or in doing what was expected of him. Sure, he preformed well at times, but those times seemed to be too few and too far between. Before something like this could even be considered, any team trading for a guy like Marleau has to suss out whether Marleau is a damaged player or if he is the kind of guy who is going to rebound in a new setting with different pressures. The Islanders have proven to be a much more nurturing family environment for many players. Perhaps a guy like Marleau who is simply tired of being ragged on can flourish under a coach like Ted Nolan and an organization like the Islanders who are going to be much more positive than the shit storm he faced every day playing for a guy like Ron Wilson who couldn't push his buttons.

And again, this is just conjecture. Something to think about on a slow day.

Playoff Predictions

I was right on three of the four matchups in the semi-final round. Seriously, this is way better than I usually do when I predict anything. I had San Jose going through to meet the Red Wings in the west and not the Dallas Stars.

By the way, if you stayed up last night for all four overtimes and you're not a Dallas Stars fan, you have my unending respect. I bet you are unemployed, too, but I give you respect nonetheless. Now go get a job.

So, you know, there is a lot of whining in Rangerland today and let's face it, there are a lot of questions for that team going forward. Jagr had flashes but yesterday he played like a guy resigned to his future in Russia. There was little or no desperation in the team at all until that fluky Wolfpack dude got the first goal. Then, when Dawes tied it up, there was a little life on the Ranger bench--but none of it from the captain.

My guess is that this offseason is going to see the departure of both Jagr (to Russia) and Joe Sakic (to retirement).

If you didn't catch it, Sakic begged onto the ice in the closing seconds of the game the other night against the Red Wings when the out-manned Avalanche got pasted 8-2. Nobody asks to get back out there in the waning seconds of a series where you've been catching a hoofin' unless you're going for a personal "moment". That's what leads to speculation, my friends.

Sakic missed a bunch of time this season with an assortment of ailments; chief amongst them was a sports hernia. If he does retire, the league will be without the face of the Colorado franchise and one of the classiest captains of all-time.

That brings us to the Conference Finals. The West will kick off Thursday in Detroit and the East will take a bow on Friday. I expect the Red Wings to keep rolling into the next round and they'll send Dallas home in five. They're just too scary and Johan Franzen is playing with such fire that secondary scoring for the Wings is becoming primary scoring!

Plus, I am rooting for former Islander Chris Osgood, so there you go. Red Wings in five.

Philadelphia has played incredibly well this spring. For a team to come from the sixth spot to the conference finals is a heck of an achievement. RJ Umberger is going to make himself some dollars this off-season; but I doubt that it is going to come from the Flyers since they are in Salary Cap Hell going forward. It feels like now or never for Philadelphia; is only because Paul Holmgren may not be able to reload as he did this past off-season.

With the Penguins, you get the sense that this is just the beginning of greatness. The Pens are getting great play from the guys you expect to carry the load (Crosby; Malkin; etc.) and they are also getting great contributions up and down the bench. I kinda see that loss to the Rangers as a bit of a wake-up call. The team had reeled off seven wins in a row before that loss and they may have gotten a collective big head for a minute. Hey, it happens to everyone.

I see The Battle of Pennsylvania actually going seven games with the Penguins coming out in the end.

Other predictions of mine, just for the fun of it: Dateline NBC will have a Chris Hansen-hosted Roger Clemens special this spring and we will finally get to hear Hansen say to Clemens the immortal line, "Hello, Roger. Have a seat."

Also, the Celtics will win the NBA championship. We've already lined up a special NBA Finals correspondent if the Celtics play the Lakers for the title since we gave up on the NBA when Reggie Lewis died.

Here are the schedules, courtesy nhl.com. The games with asterisks (*) are games "as necessary"


2008 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Fri., May 9, 2008 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Sun., May 11, 2008 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Tues., May 13, 2008 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Thurs., May 15, 2008 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
*Sun., May 18, 2008 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
*Tues., May 20, 2008 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
*Thurs., May 22, 2008 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh


2008 WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Thurs., May 8, 2008 Dallas at Detroit
Sat., May 10, 2008 Dallas at Detroit
Mon., May 12, 2008 Detroit at Dallas
Wed., May 14, 2008 Detroit at Dallas
*Sat., May 17, 2008 Dallas at Detroit
*Mon., May 19, 2008 Detroit at Dallas
*Wed., May 21, 2008 Dallas at Detroit

Playoff Preview: Forecasting the First Round

While not a great season for the Islanders and their fans, this has been a heck of a season for the National Hockey League. This is such an exciting time to be a hockey fan, really, with all of the young and emerging stars throughout the league--kids like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews of the Blackhawks who are sitting out the dance after fine rookie seasons while players like Alex Ovechkin will be playing meaningful April games for the first time in his career. Plus, I guess not all is lost when Toews and Kane are playing in the World Championships for their countries.

The rise of the Washington Capitals has to be the feel-good story of the season. The Caps won 9 of their last 10 games to vault over the Hurricanes to capture the Southeast Division title and knock Peter Laviolette's squad right out of the playoffs. The Caps ownership has to be elated with the response to the team locally and I am officially hitching my wagon of rooting interest to Alex Ovechkin, Cristobal Huet, Sergei Fedorov, and the rest of the boys from our nation's capital. Yes, it's true. I am rooting for a goalie born in France--and I feel no shame.

So, here we go with our Annual Playoff Prediction column. I am notorious for allowing my heart to lead my head when making predictions--didn't the Isles win The Cup last year?--so I am hopeful that no one takes these picks for anything more than as I intend them to be. I do not have a black belt in prognosticating. Seriously, if you're using me to place bets or something, you're sick. I don't even place bets for myself no matter what I think. So there.

2008 EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS - ROUND #1

#1 Montreal vs. #8 Boston: How's this for Old Time Hockey? The Bruins and Canadiens are always a good time for innocent bystanders. I am looking forward to this series but I temper my excitement with the understanding that I am going to have to listen to Jack Edwards describe the action. Seriously, listening to Jack Edwards do the Bruins games falls between chewing tin foil and some guy with no arms having athlete's foot on the Overall Enjoyment Scale. He may love hockey but he comes off as really, really phony on television. And why does he use a fake game show announcer voice on the Bruins games when he never did that when he worked on SportCenter on ESPN? Did he just go through puberty?

That said, the Habs have owned the Bruins this year. Bob Gainey proved he had brass stones by sending Huet to Washington for a second rounder so he must have a ton of faith in Carey Price. That's good enough for me. MONTREAL IN SIX.

#2 Pittsburgh vs. #7 Ottawa: How confusing are the Senators? The team started off 15-2 and everyone is talking about how this could be a team for the ages and then they have goalie turmoil, can a coach, and limp into the playoff's back door. What does it mean? It means we won't have the Senators to kick around for very long.

On the other hand, you have the Penguins and a couple of guys name Malkin and Crosby. You have a goalie like Ty Conklin who stepped up when Marc Andre Fleury was injured and he plays his head off. Fleury comes back and he plays well too. The GM sends a message to his team that he likes the team and think they can go deep so he goes out and gets Marian Hossa, who plays some pretty disinterested hockey after arriving from Atlanta. Doesn't matter. The Senators are falling and falling real fast. The window is closing. All that's left is for owner Eugene Melnyk's expected Steinbrenner imitation that will come this summer. PENGUINS IN FIVE.

#3 Washington vs. #6 Philadelphia: I don't like the Flyers and their goon squad and I'm not sure that Marty Biron is a playoff goalie...largely because he hasn't had much of a chance sitting behind Ryan Miller in Buffalo. I also think that the hottest team going into the playoffs is at a great advantage. Don't forget that Ovechkin gets help from super-rookie Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Semin, and defenseman Mike Green. And Ovechkin is going to win the Hart. Not sure the whole "you have to lose to learn how to win" rule applies with talent like that. It's going to be a tough one because the Flyers will goon it up if they have to...and maybe even if they don't have to. CAPITALS IN SIX.

#4 New Jersey vs. #5 Those Freaking Rangers: Isn't it easy to root for the Devils (kinda) in this series? Don't let the cold hard facts get in your way, though. The Devils got mud holes walked on them by the Rangers and the Islanders this year. (By the way, NYI ROCKED the Hummer Metro ice Challenge! High-five? No? Um, well, you didn't have to leave me hanging.)

In a series between two very close seeds with very similar teams, it invariably comes down to goalies. Henrik Lundqvist is not all that, as the kids say. He's the creation of Larry Brooks and the Cablevision Hype Machine. In that regard, he is no better or more important to Jim Dolan's bottom line than the Knicks City Dancers and last I checked, the Dancers had not helped the Knicks win one game this year. They may help the Liberty, but they didn't do squat for the Knicks.

The Devils lose Rafalski and Gomez and keep winning anyway. You count them down and they keep on going. Why? Because Martin Brodeur is the best goalie of a generation. When he talks, we listen. When he plays, he wins. DEVILS IN SEVEN.

Montreal will go on to play the Devils; the Penguins will go up against the Capitals in the next round.


2008 WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS - ROUND #1

#1 Detroit vs. #8 Nashville: Detroit always wins the President's Trophy and they always seem to make a quick exit in the playoffs. Still, they have Niklas Lidstrom and you can't deny a man with more Norris Trophies than the freaking Norris Family. Then again, they also have Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, but neither has made a mark in the playoffs yet.

It would be a great story (kinda) if the Preds made it past the Red Wings after a season of not knowing where the heck they'd have an owner or where they'd play, etc. I just don't see it happening. Mike Milbury said on NBC that the Wings have to start Hasek in net or he'll pout and complain. Easy to root for him, eh? What a team player. Hopefully Chris Osgood gets in there in time to save the Detroit bacon. RED WINGS IN FIVE.

#2 San Jose vs. #7 Calgary: Haven't seen a lot of either team, to be honest. Everyone seems to think that this is the year that the Sharks will finally nut up and put it together for a decent playoff run. Some are even thinking Cup for San Jose. I'm sorry, but any team that has Roenick making a shocking contribution is already playing with fire; pun fully intended. The Flames have Jarome Iginla and former Islander favorite Adrian Aucoin but it won't matter. Evgeni Nabokov won 46 games this year. Plus, how would you like it to be in the dressing room and your GM comes down to tell the team that he just picked up Brian Campbell for the stretch run. Brian Campbell! Great player + great message = quick series. SHARKS IN FIVE.

#3 Minnesota vs. #6 Colorado: This one is interesting. Any team coached by Jacques Lemaire is going to be sound defensively. We all know that. Then again, you look at the other bench and see players with names and pedigrees like Ryan Smyth, Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote, and oh, yeah, that Sakic guy. Is Niklas Backstrom for real? One year is a fluke but being one of the top goalies in the entire league for two years is not. Is he better than Jose Theodore? If he's not, he's going to have to be. Saying that, I'll take a mild upset. COLORADO IN SEVEN.

#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Dallas: Dallas in the spring. One thing is as certain as death, taxes, and the fact that my wife is glad this column is wrapping up: Marty Turco loses in the first round. And now you're thinking that it all could change because Dallas picked up Brad Richards. He knows how to win and he has a Conn Smythe Trophy to prove it.

As Captain Tenneal would say on MXC, "Well, you're wrong."

Anaheim won the Stanley Cup last year. They are bigger and meaner (hello, Mr. Chris Pronger) than the Stars are. The Ducks have Ryan Getzlaf, Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. The Stars have an aging Mike Modano, Mike Ribiero, and Richards. The Ducks have JS Giguere. The Stars have Turco. Turco has jitters. This one is easier than it looks. DUCKS IN SIX...or, maybe, FIVE.

So, the next round will feature a renewed springtime acquaintance for the Red Wings and Avalanche which will rock. The other series will pit Ducks against the Sharks and that should be fun enough to set the Tivo for if you can't stay up late to watch the games because of work commitments. What better reason is there to play the local lottery? Win the millions, stay at home, and watch hockey. Add in a beer truck full of Mountain Dew and Corner Gas season 5 DVDs, and I will sing that country song!

Classic Series on the NHL Network

So, I am home sick from work and I have some time on my hands. I decide to watch a DVD of the NHL Network's Classic Series: Toronto vs. the Islanders from 2002.

I've been putting it off, as you can probably understand. It's something I want to see, but not over and over again.

Here's how it begins: Michael Peca (then of the Islanders) is being interviewed and he says, "He's been saying to me on numerous occasions he was, he was uh, he was uh going to try and injure me. Do somethin'."

Guess who he is talking about? Yep. Darcy Tucker.

Then the show goes immediately to the play where Tucker injured Peca by low-bridging him at the knee.

I've said it before and I will say it again: that one play derailed what should have been the rebirth or renaissance of the New York Islanders. Everything was balloons and chocolate pudding until that hit. Since then, we've had to make do with keeping our heads just above water.

The series went to seven games. I am not going to rehash all of them because if you're reading this, you know what happened. But taking a battle-tested team like the Maple Leafs to seven games in an incredibly hard-fought first series should have been the jumping-off point to bigger and better; not the beginning of settling for mediocrity and whatever we can do to make to the playoffs only to whimper out of the first round.

And yes, I am pissed off after watching this show. So many opportunities were wasted and frittered away in 2002. Now we are left hoping for better with a makeshift lineup and coaching magic.

Look--I am competitive as anyone but I am thinking that if the Isles push like hell to make the playoffs that it's just going to be another quick exit like all the others. Maybe we need to not make the playoffs--take a step backward--before the team can take two steps ahead.

Also, does anyone have Kenny Jonsson's phone number? Can we get him to come back?

69 points and 5 points out of the playoffs

Today, I am here to tell you something that we all need to wrap our heads around: the Islanders are not going to make the playoffs.

I am not a defeatist at all. Anyone who knows me for longer than three minutes fully understands that I will be rooting like hell for the Islanders to win every last game this season. In fact, with two games this week against the Rangers, I'll be rooting double-time; begging for our boys to win.

But the playoffs? It doesn't look likely.

The Isles dropped 4 points this weekend and while the effort was there, the results simply were not. The Islanders peppered Philadelphia and Florida and man, I still can't believe that the freaking Panther backup stopped 53 shots yesterday with all of the heroes in the house. I mean, the goalie was a dude I had never even heard of before, and I consider myself enough of a hockey nerd that I'll match my credentials with anyone not named Bob McKenzie.

The truth is that I like this team. They are, for the most part, a likeable group of scrappy underdog-types. They all come off as solid citizens, too. But that can only go so far--about 69 points in 67 games. The Isles are going to need to get some scoring on the team for next season. That is the bottom line. Also, the management corps are going to have to figure out whether or not they want to keep guys like The Tank and Satan who may be attractive to other teams.

The Satan issue is a tricky one. We all know that Miro can score. Flip over his hockey card and you can see that. This year--and for a good part of last season--the goals are just not there. Now we know he's been battling injury all season long so right there, the guy has an excuse if he needs one. Anybody could see that he is not right by the way he set up for the one-timer in the first period f the game on Saturday. His knee is clearly giving him trouble. The difficult thing here is to identify the trend. Is Miro's production down because he is injured or is he beginning to decline?

The Tank is who he is. He got a chance to play with the Islanders' two most creative offensive players and while it proved to be magic at first, the thrill was gone shortly thereafter. He's proven not to be a guy who is going to pot 30 goals. He works hard and plays hard and is probably a great teammate, but for the rate he's been paid, there has not been what can be considered a far return on investment.

So, right there you have a couple of guys who the Isles were hoping against hope would flourish this season. For some, injuries played a part. For others, maybe they were rated higher than they should have. The good news is that the Islanders have quite a few players either on the last year of their contracts or had signed only one-year deals. A guy like Josef Vasicek, who signed one of those deals, is likely a candidate to return next season. But with so many guys available this summer, the good news is that the Islanders can try and re-load again without worrying about dead money tied up in non-producers.

I Hate Refs

There, I said it. I try to never bash the referees or linesmen when they make mistakes but after the game last night, I feel the need to. The Islanders were robbed on two occasions: the first one was Tim Connolly's hit from behind on Alexei Yashin. The second one was the phantom tripping call on Randy Robitaille near the end of the game. Fans literally, well, littered, the ice to show their displeasure and the game was stopped so that the coliseum crew could clean up the debris.

Now I am not one to condone throwing anything on the ice but I know why the fans did what they did and I am going to explain it really slowly in case some zebras are reading this entry: you made a horsesheet call on Robitaille. Replays showed that Randy didn't even touch anyone on the Sabres. Add to that the fact that Campoli had been tugged down on a rush earlier with no call made it tough to stomach. Richard Zednik was in the box on a legitimate penalty but Robitaille had done nothing.

Here's the explanation: Islanders fans all over the world are tired of being screwed. This team is an exponentially likeable and hardworking team that has made every break for themselves all year long. Yes, it took a while for fans to fully embrace the team but you know, it takes a while for a dog that has been kicked all it's life to come around and recognize that things have changed. He still is going to cringe and he still is going to react angrily and with rage when he thinks something bad (and out of his hands) is going on. It's called injustice...and it is hard times. After taking six minutes in penalties (four for Tom Poti for drawing blood on a high stick and two to his partner, Marc Andre Bergeron) on the same play, you will forgive the fans if they've seen this before because the team has been it's own worst enemy at times over the past couple of decades. They just want to win on an even playing surface. It makes this beaten dog wonder if the Islanders are not getting calls because the league and the officiating crew do not respect the Islanders like they respect the Sabres. There is probably some merit in that assertion.

For the missed call on Yashin, you have to wonder about Tim Connolly. I mean, the guy has missed all sorts of time with post-concussion syndrome and yet he leveled a guy from behind with his head down and of course, you got no call. I don't know if the ref was huffing gas between periods or maybe one of the Ice Girls spurned his advances but there is no way he could miss that call. The puck was right there at Yashin's feet. The ref was a few feet behind the play. Connolly had a couple of strides before he hit him. It was the prefect storm of penalty calls. And yet, there was no call. Even Eddie Olzcyk on Versus was shocked and I'm not sure he was paying attention to the game during some of it!

Which leads us to the man done wrong, Alexei Yashin. Wow. Quick--name a captain in the NHL that can play a quieter ten minutes than Alexei Yashin. You can't do it. If at this point in his career Yashin feels that he is a fourth-liner, then that is what he is. Aside from salary, there is Yashin's ability. He's shown flashes of tenacity and flashes of a scoring touch but if the guy had half of Andy Hilbert's Want To, he'd be off the charts. But he doesn't and he isn't...so Alexei Yashin is what he is.

So now the Isles are down 2 games to 1 in the best of seven series. Last night was the best chance that the team had to put their stamp on the playoffs and after the first period, you had to like their chances. The ice was tilted toward Sabres goalie Ryan Miller and the mask he got waffled on two separate occasions. DiPietro played well but didn't have to play out of this worldly like he did in game 2. The Isles totally took it to the Sabres and dictated the tempo of the game for most of it. Two crappy penalties and some other no-calls and the whole thing is a miscarriage of justice.

Overmatched?

The Islanders came out obviously flat last night. Maybe they were gassed after playing four "game sevens" in a row to make it to the dance. Once they got their legs under themselves, the Isles found the center of the ice jammed with Sabres. That just makes it difficult to score. And wow, what a thing of beauty that Buffalo transition game can be once it gets going. The Sabres get the puck out of their own end so quickly. The defenseman seem to all be comfortable skating out of their own end with the puck and that, my friends, really pushes the play on their opponents.

There was some good to come out of the game. Dubie played well, I thought, for a guy making his first career playoff start. He didn't get a ton of help once the team started taking penalties in front of him. The first Buffalo goal was simply a thing of beauty that was started by Adam Mair and finished by Brian Campbell. (Oh, yeah. Some guy named Tim Connolly had something to do with it as well.) The Isles were playing catch-up for the entire first period and were lucky to get out of the first twenty minutes only down 1-0.

The second saw an increased offensive push by our boys--and it would have to be increased since the Isles only had one shot on net in the first--which brought about a tie on a great shot from Arron Asham; set up by Jason Blake. Of course, Chris "Did you know I played in the Little League World Series" Drury replied in quick fashion to put the home team ahead. It was a lead that was never surrendered.

Last night was not the bright, shining moment that the Islander Faithful were hoping for. And let's just stop it with the whole "Ricky riding into town with the white hat" talk. Does he make the Islanders a better team? You bet he does. Is there a risk in playing him in game 2 tomorrow night? We'll never know.

As someone who has been lucky (?) enough to be concussed more than once in his life, let me tell you, one good rap on the head makes it that much easier to get another concussion. Mark my words, in ten years there's going to be an epidemic of 1990's wrestlers who are drooling all over themselves and eating their mush from all those chair shots they took during the Monday Night Wars between the WWF and WCW. How do I know this? Because I can be knocked loopy by hitting my head on a hanging light in our apartment or by a quick bump while getting into the car. It happens and trust me, the consequences of even one concussion are very real.

I don't want any of this to happen to Rick DiPietro the way it has happened to Troy Aikman or Al Toon or Steve Young or even Eric Lindros. How come no one is mentioning that the Islanders' team doctor is a man named Elliot Pellman and that Dr. Pellman is alleged to not be quite the doctor or expect he is purported to be. Don't believe me? Check this link.

Now before Dr. Pellman's attorneys get all up in my area, I am just reporting what I read. Back off with the hounds.

We all know from reading Newsday and the other less-cool New York papers that Rick has been subjected to more tests to check his brain activity and wellness. I am not in any way stating that I believe that the team or even Rick himself is rushing back too soon in an effort to try and save the day. Believe me, no one is going to be happier to see a healthy Rick DiPietro back between the pipes for my beloved Islanders. All I am saying is that there is more hockey left in this kid and that there is more life left in him too. Don't risk permanent injury to replace a guy who has done pretty darn well getting the team to the playoffs.

That begs the question: with Dubie playing so well, is it a risk to replace him with DiPietro? Chemistry wise, I say that it isn't. The guys in the room know Rick and play hard for Rick. They know that he is the straw that stirs the drink, as Reggie Jackson used to say. Ted Nolan pretty much said that when Rick is cleared and ready to go that the decision is an easy one.

Whatever happens, Saturday is going to be interesting.

Predictions

Here are my 2007 Stanley Cup Predictions. Those who know me understand that I am terrible at this sort of thing. I think I have picked one Cup winner correctly in the past ten years (Detroit) so if you are reading this and are inclined to bet, I totally disavow any culpability in the deal.

East:

8 Islanders over 1 Buffalo in a stunning upset after seven games. Perhaps I am delusional and perhaps I am drunk on the Ted Nolan Kool-Aid. Whatever. The Islanders are my boys and I am sticking with them. Hey--Ryan Smyth and the Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs on the last day of the season last year and they went all the way to the finals. I'm not saying that Smyth has some sort of magic talisman or anything like that. We already know that Wade Dubielewicz has the other half of a magic amulet. Why not the Islanders? And no, I am not drunk.

2 Devils over 7 Lightning. This one could seriously go either way. It all depends on the Lightning goaltending. I expect Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St-Louis to have big games and Brad Richards did win the Conn Smythe before the lockout. Dan Boyle has had a great year and is earning Norris consideration around the league. The Devils are the Devils. Martin Brodeur is the best goalie on the planet. Devils in 6.

3 Atlanta over 6 Rangers in seven. Yes, I base this pick on the fact that the Rangers are the Rangers and that I think Jagr will pull a disappearing act just like the one he did last season when that phantom check of his undid his shoulder.

4 Ottawa over 5 Pittsburgh in six. Bill Parcells used to say that before you learn how to win, you have to learn how to lose. This will be a lesson learned by Sidney Crosby and his ultra-young Penguin teammates.

West:

8 Calgary over 1 Detroit. I just think it is going to happen again. Datsyuk makes a lot of money now with his new contract but it still won't help his playoff slide. Flames in seven.

2 Anaheim over 7 Minnesota in five. I think the Ducks are probably the favorites to represent the West in the finals this year.

3 Canucks over 6 Stars in six. Marty Turco is a great regular season goalie and a heck of a funny guy when they mic him up at the All-Star game but he is (oh, how do you say it politely?) an unproven commodity in the playoffs. The Canucks have Roberto Luongo in his first playoff action. Luongo is, by the way, really really good. We sure could have used a guy like him on Long Island back in the day...oh, wait. Forget I said that.

5 San Jose beats 4 Nashville in five. San Jose has been knock knock knock on heaven's door for a while now. Joe Thornton has a chance to make a splash in the playoffs and be the kind of leader the Bruins thought he would never be. Maybe they knew something everyone else in the free world didn't; I don't know. But right now, Mike O'Connell looks like he made a terrible mistake that could set the Bruins back for years. They sure looked disinterested in the games I saw them play.