Economics

Here's something I was debating with a buddy of mine. Well, not much debating, because he is a Senators fan and he found it insane that someone would give a guy like Wade Redden 39 million over six years and a no trade clause. I mean, who is stupid enough to do that? Was there a gas leak at the Garden this July that was covered up?

Anyway, I mentioned that when you see the games on TV that it is strange because the top bowls are full and there are empty seats in the lower sections. What that means to me is that the core fans are going to the games but the corporations and businesses (who already paid for their tickets) are not even taking clients out to schmooze. That means that revenue for the NHL and the NBA in these bad economic times is essentially "locked in" because those companies have already paid for their expensive season tickets and suites. I mean, Gary Bettman was pooped on for mentioning this but c'mon, give the guy a break. He is right on this one. The NHL and the teams had already collected the bulk of their cash before the economic situation hit the fan earlier this fall.

Taking that into consideration, you have to think that next year, for the NHL, the cap is not going to drop as dramatically as some people (who are not thinking this through) may believe. If the salary cap has to be a certain percentage of the money the league takes in this season--and it does--it may actually go up a little bit because of all of these locked-in dollars (advertising; TV, season tickets, etc.) that the league has already collected. NEXT year is when we could see some serious-ass corporate belt-tightening that will affect the bottom line (and the cap) for the NHL in 2010-2011.

What does this mean for right now? Well, for one thing, it's way better to be at the floor of the cap (just over 40 million) than it is to be scraping the ceiling. It also means that a team like Pittsburgh could be seeing their window closing a little faster than they expect it to after handing out long-term, pricey deals to Sid the Kid, Malkin, Fleury, and perhaps Jordan Staal. Look what happens in the NBA: you get two or three guys making all the money and then your screwed because you can't find second-tier complimentary players to round out the roster to make a competitive team.

In the NFL, it is the same deal. Tom Brady was given a lot of credit for "getting it" when he took a below-market deal to keep the Patriots competitive. The Colts pay so much money to Peyton Manning that they can't keep a running back. Think of that next time you see Peyton in another commercial.

I guess what I am saying is that right now, with the economic circumstances facing this country and the world, laying in the weeds and waiting for better days to strike is a very smart thing to do. Throwing good money after bad money (the old Rangers model) never got the teams anywhere in the standings. It just inflated the middle class of player in the NHL. (Think I am wrong? See Holik, Bobby.) As things get better, maybe the Lighthouse gets approved, and the fates of our beloved franchise are turned around. Sticking to the course and treading water is maddening for the present but it just may pay off in the future.