Playoff Preview: Forecasting the First Round

While not a great season for the Islanders and their fans, this has been a heck of a season for the National Hockey League. This is such an exciting time to be a hockey fan, really, with all of the young and emerging stars throughout the league--kids like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews of the Blackhawks who are sitting out the dance after fine rookie seasons while players like Alex Ovechkin will be playing meaningful April games for the first time in his career. Plus, I guess not all is lost when Toews and Kane are playing in the World Championships for their countries.

The rise of the Washington Capitals has to be the feel-good story of the season. The Caps won 9 of their last 10 games to vault over the Hurricanes to capture the Southeast Division title and knock Peter Laviolette's squad right out of the playoffs. The Caps ownership has to be elated with the response to the team locally and I am officially hitching my wagon of rooting interest to Alex Ovechkin, Cristobal Huet, Sergei Fedorov, and the rest of the boys from our nation's capital. Yes, it's true. I am rooting for a goalie born in France--and I feel no shame.

So, here we go with our Annual Playoff Prediction column. I am notorious for allowing my heart to lead my head when making predictions--didn't the Isles win The Cup last year?--so I am hopeful that no one takes these picks for anything more than as I intend them to be. I do not have a black belt in prognosticating. Seriously, if you're using me to place bets or something, you're sick. I don't even place bets for myself no matter what I think. So there.

2008 EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS - ROUND #1

#1 Montreal vs. #8 Boston: How's this for Old Time Hockey? The Bruins and Canadiens are always a good time for innocent bystanders. I am looking forward to this series but I temper my excitement with the understanding that I am going to have to listen to Jack Edwards describe the action. Seriously, listening to Jack Edwards do the Bruins games falls between chewing tin foil and some guy with no arms having athlete's foot on the Overall Enjoyment Scale. He may love hockey but he comes off as really, really phony on television. And why does he use a fake game show announcer voice on the Bruins games when he never did that when he worked on SportCenter on ESPN? Did he just go through puberty?

That said, the Habs have owned the Bruins this year. Bob Gainey proved he had brass stones by sending Huet to Washington for a second rounder so he must have a ton of faith in Carey Price. That's good enough for me. MONTREAL IN SIX.

#2 Pittsburgh vs. #7 Ottawa: How confusing are the Senators? The team started off 15-2 and everyone is talking about how this could be a team for the ages and then they have goalie turmoil, can a coach, and limp into the playoff's back door. What does it mean? It means we won't have the Senators to kick around for very long.

On the other hand, you have the Penguins and a couple of guys name Malkin and Crosby. You have a goalie like Ty Conklin who stepped up when Marc Andre Fleury was injured and he plays his head off. Fleury comes back and he plays well too. The GM sends a message to his team that he likes the team and think they can go deep so he goes out and gets Marian Hossa, who plays some pretty disinterested hockey after arriving from Atlanta. Doesn't matter. The Senators are falling and falling real fast. The window is closing. All that's left is for owner Eugene Melnyk's expected Steinbrenner imitation that will come this summer. PENGUINS IN FIVE.

#3 Washington vs. #6 Philadelphia: I don't like the Flyers and their goon squad and I'm not sure that Marty Biron is a playoff goalie...largely because he hasn't had much of a chance sitting behind Ryan Miller in Buffalo. I also think that the hottest team going into the playoffs is at a great advantage. Don't forget that Ovechkin gets help from super-rookie Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Semin, and defenseman Mike Green. And Ovechkin is going to win the Hart. Not sure the whole "you have to lose to learn how to win" rule applies with talent like that. It's going to be a tough one because the Flyers will goon it up if they have to...and maybe even if they don't have to. CAPITALS IN SIX.

#4 New Jersey vs. #5 Those Freaking Rangers: Isn't it easy to root for the Devils (kinda) in this series? Don't let the cold hard facts get in your way, though. The Devils got mud holes walked on them by the Rangers and the Islanders this year. (By the way, NYI ROCKED the Hummer Metro ice Challenge! High-five? No? Um, well, you didn't have to leave me hanging.)

In a series between two very close seeds with very similar teams, it invariably comes down to goalies. Henrik Lundqvist is not all that, as the kids say. He's the creation of Larry Brooks and the Cablevision Hype Machine. In that regard, he is no better or more important to Jim Dolan's bottom line than the Knicks City Dancers and last I checked, the Dancers had not helped the Knicks win one game this year. They may help the Liberty, but they didn't do squat for the Knicks.

The Devils lose Rafalski and Gomez and keep winning anyway. You count them down and they keep on going. Why? Because Martin Brodeur is the best goalie of a generation. When he talks, we listen. When he plays, he wins. DEVILS IN SEVEN.

Montreal will go on to play the Devils; the Penguins will go up against the Capitals in the next round.


2008 WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS - ROUND #1

#1 Detroit vs. #8 Nashville: Detroit always wins the President's Trophy and they always seem to make a quick exit in the playoffs. Still, they have Niklas Lidstrom and you can't deny a man with more Norris Trophies than the freaking Norris Family. Then again, they also have Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, but neither has made a mark in the playoffs yet.

It would be a great story (kinda) if the Preds made it past the Red Wings after a season of not knowing where the heck they'd have an owner or where they'd play, etc. I just don't see it happening. Mike Milbury said on NBC that the Wings have to start Hasek in net or he'll pout and complain. Easy to root for him, eh? What a team player. Hopefully Chris Osgood gets in there in time to save the Detroit bacon. RED WINGS IN FIVE.

#2 San Jose vs. #7 Calgary: Haven't seen a lot of either team, to be honest. Everyone seems to think that this is the year that the Sharks will finally nut up and put it together for a decent playoff run. Some are even thinking Cup for San Jose. I'm sorry, but any team that has Roenick making a shocking contribution is already playing with fire; pun fully intended. The Flames have Jarome Iginla and former Islander favorite Adrian Aucoin but it won't matter. Evgeni Nabokov won 46 games this year. Plus, how would you like it to be in the dressing room and your GM comes down to tell the team that he just picked up Brian Campbell for the stretch run. Brian Campbell! Great player + great message = quick series. SHARKS IN FIVE.

#3 Minnesota vs. #6 Colorado: This one is interesting. Any team coached by Jacques Lemaire is going to be sound defensively. We all know that. Then again, you look at the other bench and see players with names and pedigrees like Ryan Smyth, Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote, and oh, yeah, that Sakic guy. Is Niklas Backstrom for real? One year is a fluke but being one of the top goalies in the entire league for two years is not. Is he better than Jose Theodore? If he's not, he's going to have to be. Saying that, I'll take a mild upset. COLORADO IN SEVEN.

#4 Anaheim vs. #5 Dallas: Dallas in the spring. One thing is as certain as death, taxes, and the fact that my wife is glad this column is wrapping up: Marty Turco loses in the first round. And now you're thinking that it all could change because Dallas picked up Brad Richards. He knows how to win and he has a Conn Smythe Trophy to prove it.

As Captain Tenneal would say on MXC, "Well, you're wrong."

Anaheim won the Stanley Cup last year. They are bigger and meaner (hello, Mr. Chris Pronger) than the Stars are. The Ducks have Ryan Getzlaf, Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. The Stars have an aging Mike Modano, Mike Ribiero, and Richards. The Ducks have JS Giguere. The Stars have Turco. Turco has jitters. This one is easier than it looks. DUCKS IN SIX...or, maybe, FIVE.

So, the next round will feature a renewed springtime acquaintance for the Red Wings and Avalanche which will rock. The other series will pit Ducks against the Sharks and that should be fun enough to set the Tivo for if you can't stay up late to watch the games because of work commitments. What better reason is there to play the local lottery? Win the millions, stay at home, and watch hockey. Add in a beer truck full of Mountain Dew and Corner Gas season 5 DVDs, and I will sing that country song!